その理由については、資金が確保出来なかった事と、JAXAとのパイプ役かつロケット技術のアドバイザーである柴藤氏の容態が悪化し、2008年に亡くなった事が原因として大きいだろう。
と小林代表は寄稿にて語っている。本開発については、持ち出し予算ではなく、確保は出来なかったようだ。2004年以降に、20億円の資金が公的に投入されたという事実は確認出来ない。
また、ロケット自体は予備設計を2005年3月に完了していた。しかしながら、宇宙開発を全く行っていない企業が、これまでの業務と関係が無い宇宙ロケットの具体的な設計を即座に行えると考えるのは不自然である。
従って、このロケット設計は、JAXAの柴藤氏が中心になって実施したと見られ、JAXAとのパイプ役でもあった柴藤氏が2008年に亡くなった事により、技術的な知見・ノウハウの面でも、本計画は終了したと見られる。
射場については、追尾系、危機管理等、JAXAに技術協力を仰ぐ予定であった。下記に射場の概要図を示すが、建物で組み立て、射点に運んで起立させる方式だった様だ。
残念ながら、計画が中止された本ロケット事業であるが、米国等ではアポロ計画以後、この様な民間ロケット開発の中止は、頻繁に起こっている出来事である。日本については、そもそもロケット事業が少ないため、計画の中止例を見つける事が難しい。
上手く行った例は、世の中に溢れているが、上手く行かなかった例は、情報が埋もれてしまう。上手く行った例は、氷山の一角に過ぎないというのに。プロジェクトXは、大体的に取り上げられるのに、プロジェクト×（バッテン）は、特集しても視聴者が面白がって見ないから仕方のない事ではあるけれども。
様々な、プロジェクトに関するストーリー、あるいは成功例を見てきたが、大きな事業を行う際に、極めて少人数の情熱やたった1人のリーダーシップが、重要であることは間違いない。1人の情熱に皆が集まり、世界を変えるのである。
漫画化にあたり、病床の柴藤氏に持って行き、意見を聞いたそうである。後に退院した柴藤氏が、それまでロケットの大型化一辺倒だったのを小型ロケットを向いたのは「なつのロケット」の影響ではないかと考えるほどで、漫画化に当たってロケットの小型化について何度も議論したとのことである。
一方で、重要なキーマンやリーダーのリーダー確保の重要性については、漫画「なつのロケット」のストーリーを見れば分かる。某主人公１が居なくなったが、某主人公２が引き継いだシーンだ。某主人公２が居なかったら、あの漫画のストーリーは、あそこで終わってる。
[6] Subscale Firing Test for Regenerative Cooling LOX/Methane Rocket Engine, IHI and JAXA
Sixteen years ago (2004), I heard the news that a small and medium-sized enterprise in Ibaraki Prefecture was going to develop a small satellite launch vehicle. I thought, "Oh, that's great! I would love to hear about the plan," I thought at the time, but there has been no further news since then. After all, I was aware that the plan itself disappeared, although I had heard about it until 2005. I would like to summarize the information about this case at that time.
1. How the Small Rocket Business Study Group was established
- Before 2003: The possibility of developing a small satellite launch vehicle will be explored by combining the know-how of JAXA's Dr. Yoji Shibato, who played a major role in the development of the N-I through H-IIA rockets, with Ibaraki Prefecture's technology.
- February 2003: A preparatory meeting was held mainly by the Tsukuba Research Support Center Co.
- July 2004: Preparatory meeting for the establishment. Ltd., Tsukuba Research Support Center, NPO Hitachinaka Work Toho Shokusan, Kanazawa Kogyo, and the Ibaraki Prefecture Department of Commerce, Industry and Labor.
- September 16, 2004: Fifteen small and medium-sized companies in Ibaraki Prefecture start a study group for the production and launch of a small rocket. They plan to conduct technical research and market surveys by the end of March 2005, which is six months away. The goal is to launch a rocket as early as 2008.
Founding Prospectus of the Small Rocket Business Research Society
The situation surrounding the domestic space industry is becoming more and more active, with local small and medium-sized enterprises, trading companies, and universities, such as those in Higashi Osaka, beginning to develop small satellites. However, there are no companies in Japan that specialize in launching satellites, and we have no choice but to ask foreign companies, such as those in Russia, to do so.
Looking back at the history of Ibaraki Prefecture, it is said that Iizuka Iga-Shichi (Karakuri Iga-Shichi) of Yatabe, Tsukuba City, developed karakuri dolls and a large clock in the Horeki era (1592 - 1597) and attempted to make an airplane and fly.
Since the end of last year, we have pursued the possibility of combining these advanced manufacturing technologies with rocket manufacturing to develop the rocket business.
As a result, over the next six months, we will investigate the technical and business possibilities of launching rockets and the possibility of fostering small businesses in the prefecture to produce small rockets.
引用元：県内の中小企業１５社がロケット開発に挑戦 , http://blog.hitachi-net.jp/archives/6893784.html
2. Reasons for the cancellation of this project
This plan was described in JAXA's "Collaboration with Local Communities and Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises" document (FY 2005).
JAXA's "Collaboration with Local Communities and Small and Medium-Sized Businesses" document (FY 2005)
As of 2020, there has been no further word on the project. After all, although there was talk of it until 2005, the project itself seems to have disappeared.
The main reasons for this were a lack of funding and the death of Dr. Shibato in 2008 due to the deteriorating condition of his role as a conduit for JAXA and advisor on rocket technology.
In terms of funding, the project was expected to have a total development cost of 2 billion yen.
- Some kind of public funding is essential.
- Without public technical support from JAXA, this plan would be virtually impossible to implement, even for technical development risks. In that sense, close coordination with JAXA will be necessary in the future.
In his contribution, Mr. Kobayashi said. There is no evidence that any funds of 2 billion yen have been publicly invested in the project since 2004.
In addition, the preliminary design of the rocket itself was completed in March 2005. However, it is unnatural to think that a company that is not engaged in space development can immediately design a specific space launch vehicle that has nothing to do with its past work.
Therefore, it seems that Dr. Shibato of JAXA was the main person who designed the rocket, and with the death of Mr. Shibafuji in 2008, this project seems to have ended in terms of technical knowledge and know-how.
3. Performance Values and Characteristics of the Small Satellite Launch Vehicle in Preliminary DesignHere is an outline of the rocket that was pre-designed in this project.
This rocket was designed to focus on the launch of a small commercial satellite, which has become popular in the world since the 2010s. However, it is not a microsatellite, but rather a small satellite weighing about 300 kg that can be launched into LEO at an altitude of about 300 km.
Planned Small Satellite Launch Vehicle
Number of stages: 2-stage rocket
Total Development Cost: 2 billion yen
Launching cost: 100 million yen/machine
Launch Method : Launching Type
Projected demand: 30 aircraft / 4 years
Target: Small commercial satellite
Launch Path: 300 km (LEO)
Length: 22.0m
Diameter: 0.17m
Total weight: 25.4t
Carrying capacity: 300kg
1st Stage
Propellant mass : 18.2t
Structural mass : 1.7t
Thrust (vacuum): 8t × 5
Specific Impulse (vacuum): 310 s
Propellant：LOX/LNG
2nd Stage
Propellant mass：5t
Structural mass : 0.5t
Thrust (vacuum)：8t ×5
Specific Impulse (vacuum):310 s
Propellant：LOX/LNG
Scheduled Schedule
2005-2007: Second half of basic design, sub-system design,
manufacturing of actual equipment, launch pad design and construction
End of 2007: Launch of the first unit
2008: Launches two demonstration aircraft
2009: Commercial satellite launches and sales begin.
Propellant fuels include LNG and liquefied natural gas. Most of these fuels are methane gas. This gas is not flammable, and the Soviet Union's OKB-2 Isaev Design Bureau has developed a number of ground test engines, but they have not yet been installed in a space rocket.
LOX/methane propellant rocket engine under development as of 2015
In 2005, a space rocket called the GX rocket was being developed in Japan. The second stage was to have an IHI LE-8 rocket engine, which was to be the world's first methane powered rocket engine, but the plan was cancelled.
Dr. Shibafuto's preliminary design was probably based on the LE-8, the second stage rocket engine for the GX rocket, which was under development at the time. Since liquid hydrogen is difficult to handle, when considering an appropriate hydrocarbon fuel, he may have come up with LOX/LNG as an option.
GX rocket (top) and the project's rocket (bottom)
The composition of the CG is a perfect match.
Also, the following description of the rocket engine was made in an article at the time.
- For a particularly important distant cause, consumer turbochargers will be modified and used for fuel pumps in order to reduce development costs as much as possible.
- As for the rocket engine, we are collaborating with Ibaraki University.
- We will simplify the system as much as possible by reducing the number of components and sharing them.
It is very doubtful whether the purpose and performance can be achieved by improving a civilian turbocharger, but they were thinking about it to keep the cost as low as possible.
For the launch site, JAXA was going to ask for technical support for the tracking and crisis management systems. The outline of the launch site is shown below, and it was to be assembled in a building and transported to the launch site.
Diagram of the firing range
4. Conclusion
Unfortunately, this project was cancelled, but in the United States and other countries, such cancellation of civilian rocket development has happened frequently since the Apollo program. In Japan, it is difficult to find examples of cancelled projects because the rocket business is so small.
There are plenty of examples of successful projects in the world, but information about unsuccessful projects is buried. The examples of successful projects are just the tip of the iceberg. Project X gets a lot of coverage, while Project X (Batten) doesn't get a lot of attention from viewers, so it can't be helped.
However, it's useful to contrast information to analyze what the different elements were in the cases that didn't work and what worked.
As we have seen the stories and successes of various projects, there is no doubt that the passion of a very small group of people and the leadership of a single person are important when it comes to large projects; one person's passion can bring everyone together and change the world.
What we can learn from this time is that the key people and leaders in a project must be retained until the very end. Budget is important, but it's secondary.
5. Postscripty the way, there's a manga called "Natsu-no-Rocket" in which elementary school kids make rockets. (Spoiler alert below)
In the postscript, it is stated that "I just showed it to an expert," and this "expert" was the very same Dr. Yoji Shibato who is mentioned in the article.
When it was time to make the manga, he took it to Shibato, who was sick in bed, and asked his opinion. Later, when he came out of the hospital, Shibafuji was so devoted to making larger rockets that he turned his attention to smaller rockets, which he thought might have been influenced by Natsu no Rocket.
On the other hand, the importance of securing key people and leaders as leaders can be seen in the story of the Natsu no Ryoketto manga. It's a scene where a certain protagonist 1 is gone, but a certain protagonist 2 has taken over. If a certain protagonist 2 wasn't there, the story of that manga would have ended right there.
References
[1] 小型ロケットビジネス研究会 その軌跡,
http://www.net1.jway.ne.jp/kemusan/ro-main.html[2] 県内の中小企業１５社がロケット開発に挑戦, ほっとメール＠ひたち, 2004年9月16日
http://blog.hitachi-net.jp/archives/6893784.html[3] 産学官連携活動の現状について, 宇宙航空研究開発機構産学官連携部, 平成17年1月26日
http://www.jaxa.jp/press/2005/01/20050126_sac_spacebiz.pdf[4] 訃報：柴藤羊二さん
http://smatsu.air-nifty.com/lbyd/2008/04/post_235e.html[5] 翔べ！茨城発の小型ロケット, いっとじゅっけん, 2005.3
[6] Subscale Firing Test for Regenerative Cooling LOX/Methane Rocket Engine, IHI and JAXA
https://www.eucass.eu/doi/EUCASS2017-381.pdf
